Networks, Complexity, and Relatedness

Networks, Complexity, and Relatedness
Inquiry and learning into social networks, organizational network analysis, and the relationships among people and systems in complex organizations and networks.

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Friday, May 14, 2004

Scenario planning in the age of complexity

I caught up with a former Digital* colleague for coffee this morning. Colin is now at Interisle Consulting, with some former colleagues from NerveWire (a late-blooming e-business consulting company). NerveWire purchased NCRI (Northeast Consulting Resources), a small strategy consulting company that developed an exceptional methodology -- Future Mapping -- for business strategy based on scenario planning. Colin first worked with Future Mapping in the early 90s, at Digital, and he and I and some other colleagues brought Future Mapping back into Compaq (which had by then acquired Digital) as part of its e-Services development.

The method is based on designing five possible "future states" for the industry ecosystem in which the client does business. During a one-or two-day workshop, executives work with artifacts that represent events that would presage movement toward one or another of the scenarios. They come to realize how they might respond to these events, and also perhaps to shape them. Colin mentioned that he was thinking that the method needed some adjustment for the way the world is now, and it occurred to me that the methodology is based on a predictive mindset. It is perhaps pointless to pick a "winning" scenario and plan your strategy based on it. What you need to understand is that all scenarios can co-exist, and that you can't plan a strategy toward a fixed future in any event.

Probe, sense, respond. Keep the business moving according to its core operating principles, and guide toward a vision. But don't ever expect that a strategy will land you where you think you ought to be. Too many things change far too rapidly for the development of a fixed strategy. It is about resilience. And Colin reminded me, gently, that "Interisle" is an anagram of "Resilient." (Not accidentally, either.)

I was reminded of this part of the conversation during an IM chat with Judith Meskill. I am still working on this KM Cluster event in Boston on October 15, in which we'll have a day-long conversation about the value of networks -- intangibles and their worth. Just in a short IM I was able to clarify some of thinking, and get back into action.

One of things that I valued about being in a corporation was the ability to find people around every day I could just sit down and have these 15-minute chats with. Now I am coming to value that in my virtual workspace, and my new network.

*Digital Equipment Corporation

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